In brief

The Bahamas is a tiny, open, import-dependent island economy. Tourism is the main driver of economic growth, fiscal revenue and employment. The US is the primary source of tourists to the country and its principal trade partner. EIU expects real GDP to continue to moderate in the 2024-25 forecast period as growth in tourism and construction returns to the pre-pandemic trajectory, in line with a softer global economy. The unemployment rate will continue to decline. Substantial downside risks to our outlook stem from a sharper than anticipated slowdown in the US or sudden price shocks, as these would dampen the recovery in the domestic tourism sector and weigh on economic activity.